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If Donald Trump Keeps His Promises, China Wins

 

Below is an excerpt from The Straits Times:

“(Straits Times) – For China, the biggest question or factor in dealing with a Republican President Donald Trump in the White House is what he will do with the Asia-Pacific rebalance strategy of outgoing Democratic President Barack Obama.”

There is a strong belief in China that Mr Trump, based on his professed desire to cut back the US’ role as world policeman and to dismantle its alliance system with countries like Japan, would scale back or even discontinue the strategy that is widely seen to be aimed at curbing China’s rise and influence.

 

Such a move by the Republican candidate could also sound the death knell for the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership, a 12-nation free trade pact that excludes China and is feared to hurt its trade relations in the region.

The Chinese government, sticking to its policy of non-interference in the domestic affairs of other countries, has refrained from commenting on or revealing its preference for the two candidates during the bruising US campaign.

But in recent weeks, there has been a perceptible acceptance of Mrs Clinton – with Chinese media cutting back on Trump-trumpeting stories – due to growing concerns over the impact of a Trump presidency on China.

Charles Schwab & Co., Inc Chief Investment Strategist Jeffrey Kleintop:

His protectionism policies, which could hurt global trade, and his potential mishandling of the US economy may in turn disrupt China’s economy, which is already undergoing a difficult period of balancing growth and reforms.

Tokyo-based author and New York Times journalist Martin Fackler:

Further economic downswings may hurt jobs and the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) political authority and President Xi Jinping’s hand entering a five-yearly leadership succession at next year’s 19th Party Congress.

Mr Trump’s isolationism policy may also see a US cutback from international obligations and increase the pressure on China to fill the vacuum, before it is ready or prepared to do so.

China is also worried that Mr Trump might act on his pledge to allow the US’ Asian allies South Korea and Japan to build their own nuclear arsenals in dealing with North Korea, as part of his move to cut back the US’ role as global cop.

Such a scenario could trigger a nuclear arms race and heighten regional tensions that might hurt China’s growth.

Asian stocks tumbled on Wednesday (Nov 09) on news of Mr Trump’s stunning defeat of Democrat Hillary Clinton, with the Shanghai Composite Index retreating from a 10-month high and falling declining 0.6 per cent.

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